The Clintons are finished. Will quit race soon.
I am going on the record to say that this will not go to the convention and most likely will not go into March. The Clintons are done, finito, they will hang it up soon.
Financially there is no way that the Clintons can compete much longer. Obama has raised $5 million dollars in 24 hours. Five million dollars! People like me (including me) gave $50. My brother who has never given to a campaign before gave $20. My mother who lives on a limited income gave money. I will give again. There are more than half a million of us online, dedicated, and inspired. $10 each = $5mil. $100 each = $50mil. $100 each month = you get the picture.
On the other hand the Clintons are loaning their campaign money and they have no good news in sight. Obama is going to do well, if not win out right, the next seven contests in as many days. There is no momentum on the horizon for the Clintons and without momentum fund raising will be more difficult, if not impossible. Where is she going to get $30+ million? Bill? It would be one thing if the loan had enabled a super tuesday victory, and she had pulled ahead to win like Kerry did in Iowa, loaning his campaign money and then winning it all. But she just pulled even on super tuesday and her prospects don't look better than 50-50 in terms of pulling away or winning the nomination.
Its over for the Clintons. The institutional dem power base have already started to talk behind the curtain. People will talk about the 'good of the party'--the need to keep pace with the GOP who should have a candidate shortly--the need to spend some time unifying the party before we take on McCain--avoid a convention deadlock--avoid a public spat like Kennedy/Carter--how she could be senate leader--etc. The writing is on the wall. Nobody wants to risk a long drawn out affair with the possible outcome muddled and/or deadlocked. Everyone is hoping for a way to end this thing fairly and quickly.
Its one thing for a well funded machine to demand its day in court--to let the voters decide--to let this thing play itself out. Its another thing entirely to allow an non-funded campaign to drag the party through a long contested fight when the staff are working for free and the only funder is the candidate herself. Its over even if we don't yet know it.
I would argue that there is still the sympathy factor, which I think worked in New Hampshire and will keep her alive for a few more weeks. Even I feel sorry for her. She is decent, likable politician whom we have welcomed into our living rooms for 17 years. Its sad to see this chapter come to an end. Sympathy will bring some money and more votes, but sooner rather than later people will adjust to the loss, and then they may even want to hurry up her departure to end the story quickly.
I know that many of you will be furious by this and trash me and my ideas. But I wanted to go on the record predicting that the Clintons are finished and will quit the race in the near future.
UPDATE: I was wrong its 650,000 potential Obama donors online...and $6 million raised in 24 hours.|
|
|
Permalink :: 35 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
