MyDD :: GOTC

GOTC

by aiko, Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:44:12 PM EST

It all comes down to GOTC.

Its a three-way tie and its going to be won by the campaign with the best ground game. Obama is seeing crowds that are two to three times bigger than the other campaigns.

Consider this from JUST the past three days:

600 attend an Obama event in Burlington.
500 attend an Obama event in Keokuck.
900 attend an Obama event in Davenport.
900 attend an Obama event in Coralville--during a snowstorm.
400 attend an Obama event in Clinton.
400 attend an Obama event in Marshalltown.
500 attend an Obama event in Ottumwa last night. 400 attend an Obama event in Knoxville today. 500 attend an Obama event in Newton.

I heard they were already expecting 1000+ in Cedar Rapids and another 1,000 in Ames....He will be in Des Moines tonight.

He has been endorsed by more Iowa newspapers than anyone:

Marshalltown Times-Republican--central Iowa's Daily paper

Sioux City Journal--serving the states western citizens

Ottumwa Courier

Iowa City Press Citizen

Woodbine Twiner/Logan Herald-Observer

Daily Iowan

Iowa State Daily

Des Moines' El Latino

On Meet the Press Obama expressed confidence in his ground operation in Iowa. "We have as good of an organization as I think people have ever seen in Iowa, and this is going to be a tight race," he said. "I think the polls are going to be bouncing up and down over the next five days, but what we're confident about is that if our folks come to the caucus and participate, then we're going to do very well."

According to the New York Times: The Clinton, Edwards, and Obama camps seem to agree with this: -- if turnout equals 2004 (approx. 125,000), advantage Edwards. -- if turnout is slightly up (say, 130,000-140,000), advantage Clinton. -- and if turnout is way up there (think 140,000+), advantage Obama.

Asked whether he could be hurt by a lower turnout in Iowa, Obama said that's not what he is expecting. "I think everybody is predicting a big turnout at this point."

Tags: obama, clinton, 2008, edwards (all tags)

Permalink :: 27 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: GOTC (none / 0)

THe dmr poll would probably come out tonight , after that we can all make our predictions.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:47:52 PM EST

Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Heard HRC is up 9 points

by Louverture on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:48:34 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Thats probably just a rumor.

I don't foresee that happening under any circumstances.

However I believe she would be leading in the poll.

Now that doesn't mean she would win on caucus night because you can only do much with polling.

The order in the poll Clinton , Edwards , Obama . With Clinton ahead of Edwards by about 4 points and edwards ahead of Obama by 2 points.

How is that for a prediction.

lol.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:55:53 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Were you the one who said that last time when the poll didn't even come out?

by Progressive America on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:57:55 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Right. Just like your supposed "scoop" on the same poll last week (but before polling had even begun.

by markjay on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:58:21 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Yeah, you were.

http://crackityjones.mydd.com/story/2007 /12/22/234639/02#commenttop

by Progressive America on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:04:18 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Where did you hear that? I hope you're right.

by arkansasdemocrat on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:24:04 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Our girl is going to pull it out!!!

by Louverture on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 06:09:27 PM EST
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Polls are repeated by fearful Clintonites (none / 0)

We all know that these polls this late in the game are meaningless. They were meaningless earlier in December when Obama was ahead, and they mean nothing today. I realized how scared the Clintonites were when after that ridiculous poll last week showing Clinton 15 points ahead, it was plastered on the front of every HRC blog and left there even after it was thoroughly discredited.

Face it, the Clinton era is over!

by highgrade on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:52:31 PM EST

Re: Polls are repeated by fearful Clintonites (none / 0)

I think there is an awful lot of evidence that we have a three way tie. Nevertheless, I expect it to break for Obama by Thursday night.

by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:59:37 PM EST
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Re: Polls are repeated by fearful Clintonites (none / 0)

I really don't remember any Hillary supporters touting that poll as real- I'm not sure where you are spending your time- for someone who doesn't like her- you must be going to a lot more HRC blogs than I am- Hillary herself didn't even put it up on Hillaryhub.

by reasonwarrior on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:16:22 PM EST
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Re: Polls are repeated by fearful Clintonites (2.00 / 1)

I realize when seeing all these new names for Obama pop up on this site over the last 10 days how scared Obama posters are about seeing Obama's national polling fall apart again so dramatically, and his Iowa polling go from 5%, 7% and 8% leads to now falling behind again in that state. We have the worst of all worlds for Obama: The media is still on the waggon that Obama is going to win Iowa, yet, he no longer shows leads in any polls, even comes in third in some. With him being strongly dependent on voters who don't have a good history of showing up, I can see where the uneasiness and fear comes from. Should Obama end up third in Iowa, it would probably be very, very damaging to him, essentially finish him off. Even second would be seen as somewhat of a negative surprise and below-expectation performance.

by georgep on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:36:09 PM EST
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Re: Polls are repeated by fearful Clintonites (none / 0)

Obama is toast. I hear he plans to bow out on Friday----speech already written.

by Louverture on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 06:10:23 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

"The consensus is that high turnout (170+K) helps Obama and low turnout (124K) helps Clinton."

That is not the consensus I have seen. That consensus showed that low turnout (~130k) helps Edwards, Clinton is helped by medium turnout (150,000 to 175k,) above that would help Obama to an extent.

by georgep on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:27:17 PM EST

Re: GOTC (none / 0)

Your numbers seem way too high, especially for Edwards.

by Namtrix on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:40:11 PM EST
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Re: NY Times (none / 0)

The Clinton, Edwards, and Obama camps seem to agree with this:
-- if turnout equals 2004 (approx. 125,000), advantage Edwards.
-- if turnout is slightly up (say, 130,000-140,000), advantage Clinton.
-- and if turnout is way up there (think 140,000+), advantage Obama.

by BDM on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:52:51 PM EST
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Re: NY Times (none / 0)

Thanks. I was using numbers that Jerome quoted a week or so ago.

The NYT numbers are a lot more manageable for Obama--in fact I think 140K is practically expected at this point.

by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 05:15:58 PM EST
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Re: NY Times (none / 0)

I would put a lot more credence in the NY times number's than Jeromes.

by BDM on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 05:19:09 PM EST
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Re: NY Times (none / 0)

I take everything he says with a grain of salt (and an aspirin)

by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 07:42:40 PM EST
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Re: GOTC (none / 0)

The pressure is on Steve Hildebrand and Paul Tewes. It looks like, if it is going to happen, that we have to win eastern Iowa (and Ames), fight to a draw in the Des Moines metro and be viable in the rurals. That is largely the Kerry map to victory that Tewes was involved with.

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 05:20:42 PM EST

that seems about right (none / 0)

One problem for Obama, though, is that no candidate is likely to win the larger eastern Iowa counties (e.g. Scott, Dubuque, Clinton) by the kind of margins that Kerry did in 2004.

Also, I don't see Obama winning Woodbury and Pottawattamie counties in the west by the kind of margins Kerry had in 2004.

So probably Obama will need to do better than Kerry in central Iowa in order to win the whole thing.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 06:35:32 PM EST
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Re: that seems about right (none / 0)

I have been reading today that the urban areas are split between Clinton and Obama (will find link if nec.). But that seems to contradict what you have suggested--Edwards strength in Des Moines for example. Yes?

by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 07:44:37 PM EST
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Re: that seems about right (none / 0)

But isn't it likely that he will take the precincts in and around the college towns (Ames, Iowa City other?) or is that what you mean by central Iowa?

by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 07:46:16 PM EST
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So did Dean (none / 0)

Obama like Dean has been putting a huge emphasis on crowds, emploring already existing supporters to show up again and again to boost numbers, and like Dean imploring out of state supporters who will not caucus to show up as well.

by dpANDREWS on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 08:04:53 PM EST

Re: So did Dean (none / 0)

Where the hell are you getting your information? Its a lie. While I would agree and have said so before--not all the rally attendees will caucus for Obama--they are also there as lookeeloos. But nevertheless enough Obama folks are excited, committed, and will do what is necessary. Its an indication of potential that I wouldn't trade with Hillary's campaign for all the TEA in China.

She is counting on little old ladies who don't like to go out in the snow and ice after dark......not quite the same universe is it?

by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 08:24:38 PM EST
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Smimmadownnah (none / 0)

What did I say?

Didn't you maybe agree with me ... just a bit?

by dpANDREWS on Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 12:05:59 AM EST
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that's wrong (none / 0)

Obama is personally asking who in the crowd is still undecided (3's). From there, the staff practically hogties these people until they sign a supporter card. Those undecideds are getting a LOT of attention. Converting the 3's and firing up and assessing the real strength of 1's and 2's are the purposes of these events - not trying to show crowd strength.

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 10:57:30 PM EST
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