From the Iowa Independant....

A lot can change in the course of a few weeks, which is evident both in the shifts in this week's power rankings and the continuing volatility of the presidential race in Iowa.  Recent polls have varied a bit in their candidate rankings, but they all seem to agree on one point: the presidential race is far from settled.

Look for one more very long week.

Below, we seek to answer to the question, "If the Democratic caucuses were held tonight, how would they result?"  We based these rankings on impressions we received from activists, staff, and caucus-goers across the state and, at the most basic level, gut feelings and instincts.  We hope only that our work provides one additional point of reference to readers who are interested in the perspective of Iowans who have watched the race unfold here for the past year.

If the Democratic caucuses were held tonight, here is how we think they would turn out:

First Place: Barack Obama

Barack Obama -- Upward Momentum -- Obama has enjoyed a great week of press following his events with Oprah Winfrey.  His organization is showing signs of real strength with its nearly 1,000 house parties across the state Thursday night, and he seems to have strong second-choice support.  If the caucuses were held tonight, he would win.

Second Place: John Edwards

John Edwards -- Edwards may still have the strongest organization in Iowa, but that is no longer enough to keep him in the number one spot.  His base of supporters is slowly shrinking, and many seem to be floating in Obama's direction.  Edwards still has many talented activists in his corner and may be viable in more rural precincts than Obama, but if the caucuses were held tonight, we predict he would take second.

Third Place: Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton -- Downward Momentum -- Clinton's campaign has demonstrated a renewed commitment to retail politics at recent events, but neither she nor her husband are drawing the large crowds they once did.  Fairly or not, she is slowly being branded as the 'negative' candidate, diminishing her second-choice support.  The excitement surrounding her candidacy is waning, and her campaign seems to be too busy putting out public relations fires from day to day to do much about it.  The campaign itself, along with independent groups like Emily's List, have devoted significant resources to build an organization here that should not be underestimated, but, if the caucuses were held tonight, we think she would finish third.

Woot!

http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do? diaryId=1643